The Complexity of Behaviour Change

Behavioural science, including Signol’s behaviour change techniques, can generate significant financial returns and positive environmental impact. But the field of behavioural science faces its fair share of challenges too.

In recent years, for instance, there has been controversy over whether nudges are even effective at changing behaviour. On one hand, researchers found that an analysis of over 200 studies didn’t show any evidence that nudges changed people’s behaviour when accounting for the tendency for academic journals to only publish positive results. On the other hand, a review of 126 real-world experiments across 23 million people found that nudges clearly have a positive effect on behaviour. This shows that whether nudges and behaviour change techniques work depends on a variety of factors, and it’s important to recognise these nuances.

Behaviour change techniques and nudges don’t have a uniform effect on all people across all contexts. To demonstrate this, let’s explore two specific behaviour change techniques.

When the Behavioural Insights Team & UK government informed people that most of their neighbours had paid their taxes in a timely manner – people conformed and paid their taxes – the behaviour change technique was a resounding success. A few years later, the Polish government tested letters with various behaviour change techniques to encourage tax payments, including highlighting that most other citizens had paid their taxes. Interestingly, they found that the social norm technique was less effective than letters using a hard tone and emphasising the failure to pay as a deliberate choice and the potential punishment. What works in one country and culture may not be the most effective behaviour change technique for another.

Similarly, Oracle Utilities’ solution Opower compared people’s household energy use to their neighbours to successfully reduce people’s energy use. In initial studies, Oracle Utilities Opower sent out household energy reports and found impressive rates of behaviour change. When the company rolled out the household energy reports to millions more households, people were somewhat less likely to change their behaviour and reduce their energy usage. It’s not that their behaviour change techniques stopped working – rather, the techniques were more effective for some groups of people, such as those in the initial studies who held particularly strong pro-energy conservation attitudes, than for other groups of people, such as the broader population who may feel less strongly about energy conservation. In short, behaviour change techniques can have what are called ‘heterogeneous effects’ on people’s behaviour – changing some people’s behaviour in the intended direction, while not having any impact on other people’s behaviour or even worsening some people’s behaviour.

At Signol, we work with a diverse range of professionals – airline captains and ship masters and chief engineers from all over the world who are operating under very different circumstances. We don’t assume a one-size-fits-all approach will work. Instead, we continuously conduct user research with each company we work with to understand any unique barriers and challenges their professionals face. Once Signol is live among a group of users, we test, analyse, and model which behaviour change techniques are most effective for which individuals under which conditions. Our vision is to create a hyper-personalised behaviour change-as-a-service that continuously learns and adapts to maximise the effectiveness of behaviour change techniques, ultimately empowering employees to have a more significant impact on decarbonisation.

Beyond understanding and addressing heterogeneity, another complexity in applying behavioural science is that behaviour change techniques can also have an impact on behaviour beyond what they are specifically designed to target. These potential spillover effects on other behaviours can either be positive or negative. For instance, when someone engages in positive behaviour, they might feel they have the moral licence to engage in negative behaviour. One set of studies found that when consumers are highly aware that they’re paying a carbon tax for a carbon-intensive product, they are also more likely to purchase the carbon-intensive product – paying the tax gave them the licence to engage in less sustainable behaviour.

Our team studies any potential spillover effects on non-targeted behaviours related to fuel saving. In aviation, we look at fuel-saving behaviours at various phases of flight operations. When working with one airline, Signol deployed behaviour change techniques focused on the ‘Reduced Engine Taxi In’ procedure for one group of airline captains and techniques focused on the ‘Reduced Engine Taxi Out’ procedure for another group of airline captains. Interestingly, both groups of airline captains increased their implementation of both Reduced Engine Taxi In and Reduced Engine Taxi Out – a positive spillover effect of Signol. In maritime, we analyse the impact of Signol not only on the specific behaviours shipping companies want us to improve but also on the overall fuel burn of the main and auxiliary engines – ensuring that any spillover effects are captured in Signol’s measurement of the overall impact for the company.

There are many other complexities around behaviour change. Limited research exists on the long-term effects of behaviour change techniques, so Signol conducts its own cutting-edge research on this topic. We have found continuous improvements in fuel-saving behaviour even beyond three years. We also pay attention to the ethics of applying behaviour change techniques, and Signol has its own ethics checklist to ensure we are transparent about our behaviour change techniques within the service and that we respect airline pilots’ and seafarers’ authority and discretion at all times.

The key takeaway is that changing behaviour is not simple and often requires continuous research and testing, which is what our team of behavioural scientists, data scientists, and user experience researchers are responsible for.

As we conclude our series on the pivotal role of human behaviour in achieving net-zero goals within the shipping and aviation sectors, we’ve explored how subtle, well-designed behavioural interventions can significantly enhance operational efficiency. Our journey began by highlighting the often-overlooked impact of human actions on efficiency, delved into the factors influencing fuel-saving behaviours among pilots and seafarers, and examined strategies to encourage sustainable practices among highly trained professionals.

Next, our series will evolve to explore how user experience (UX) design and data analytics can turn these insights into action. Over the coming months, we’ll hear from Signol’s experts in UX design, research, and data science to uncover how technology and human-centered design can further empower shipping and aviation leaders and crew alike to meet their sustainability objectives. Stay tuned!